LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) – Oil prices edged lower in volatile trade on Tuesday as weak demand data from China, a gloomy economic outlook and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed. Brent crude futures fell $1.07, or 1.25%, to $84.84 a barrel by 1447 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.15, or 1.43%, at $79.11, having shed more than $2 earlier in the session.Both contracts had risen more than $1 in early trade. “The outlook remains highly uncertain, though, which should ensure oil prices remain highly volatile.”The Chinese government has raised export quotas for refined oil products in the first batch for 2023. Traders attributed the increase to expectations of poor domestic demand as the world’s largest crude importer continues to battle waves of COVID-19 infections. In further bearish news, China’s factory activity shrank in December as the surging COVID-19 infections disrupted production and weighed on demand after Beijing largely removed anti-virus curbs. NN: The signs of impending doom are very apparent to me….. Ask yourself this question, Why has China upped its export quota of refined products? Answer: since the economy is sucking shut they are seeing demand plunge. An it will get far far worse!
“We have now entered a new phase of Covid response where tough challenges remain,” Premiers Xi said
Hong Kong CNN — After a tumultuous end to a momentous and challenging year, China heads into 2023 with a great deal of uncertainty – and potentially a glimpse of light at the end of the pandemic tunnel. The chaos unleashed by leader Xi Jinping’s abrupt and ill-prepared exit from zero-Covid is spilling over into the new year, as large swathes of the country face an unprecedented Covid wave. But the haphazard reopening also offers a glimmer of hope for many: after three years of stifling Covid restrictions and self-imposed global isolation, life in China may finally return to normal as the nation joins the rest of the world in learning to live with the virus. “We have now entered a new phase of Covid response where tough challenges remain,” Xi said in a nationally televised New Year’s Eve speech. “Everyone is holding on with great fortitude, and the light of hope is right in front of us. Let’s make an extra effort to pull through, as perseverance and solidarity mean victory.”
Xi had previously staked his political legitimacy on zero-Covid. Now, as his costly strategy gets dismantled in an abrupt U-turn following nationwide protests against it, many are left questioning his wisdom. The protests, which in some places saw rare demands for Xi and the Communist Party to “step down,” may have ended, but the overriding sense of frustration has yet to dissipate.
Global economy faces tougher year in 2023, IMF’s Georgieva warns
For much of the global economy, 2023 is going to be a tough year as the main engines of global growth – the United States, Europe and China – all experience weakening activity, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Sunday.The new year is going to be “tougher than the year we leave behind,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on the CBS Sunday morning news program “Face the Nation.”
“Why? Because the three big economies – the U.S., EU and China – are all slowing down simultaneously,” she said.
In October, the IMF cut its outlook for global economic growth in 2023, reflecting the continuing drag from the war in Ukraine as well as inflation pressures and the high interest rates engineered by central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve aimed at bringing those price pressures to heel. NN: Another warning. Its going to be bad real bad.
Keystone Pipeline Restarts……. More and more an more oil coming to market
The Keystone pipeline that was shut down earlier this month after a spill has returned to operation TC Energy, its operator, said. TC Energy shut down the pipeline, which is a vital conduit for Canadian oil to the United States, after a leak was reported in Nebraska, into a creek. It took several days to contain the leak and then the company proceeded with repairing the damaged piece of infrastructure. On December 23, in its latest update on the pipeline, TC Energy said that the PHMSA had approved the company’s Restart Plan for the Cushing segment. “We will be commencing activities to support the safe restart of the segment, including rigorous testing and inspections, and this will take several days,” TC Energy said last week. The 2,687-mile Keystone Pipeline System plays a key role in connecting Alberta’s crude oil supplies to U.S. refining markets in Illinois, Oklahoma, and Texas, as well as connecting U.S. crude oil supplies from the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub to refining markets on the U.S. Gulf Coast through the Marketlink Pipeline System. As a result, the shutdown had a positive effect on oil prices and the fact that the pipeline did not return to operation sooner rather than later prolonged that effect. Now that it has been restarted, however, the restart of Keystone added to a growing number of bearish factors playing out in oil prices. The biggest among them remains Chinese demand rebound as reports about a surge in Covid infections multiply. An unexpected build in U.S. crude oil inventories also served to weigh on prices, even though it was a modest one, at 700,000 barrels.
CDC calls out China for ‘lack of adequate and transparent’ COVID data
More than half of passengers arriving at Milan’s Malpensa Airport from China in recent days have tested positive
China is facing an international backlash amid reports of an unchecked surge in COVID-19 cases in the country, as well as criticism over the government’s decision to stop providing daily COVID data. A growing number of countries, including the U.S., have announced COVID-testing requirements for people traveling from China, as the outbreak there increases the risk that new coronavirus variants could emerge and spread The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday that it was implementing a requirement for a negative COVID-19 test or documentation of recovery for passengers from China, Hong Kong and Macau boarding flights to the U.S.
“CDC is announcing this step to slow the spread of COVID-19 in the United States during the surge of COVID-19 cases in the [People’s Republic of China] given the lack of adequate and transparent epidemiological and viral genomic sequence data being reported from the PRC,” the agency said in a statement. “These data are critical to monitor the case surge effectively and decrease the chance for entry of a novel variant of concern.”
Japan said that starting Dec. 30, a COVID-19 test will be required on arrival for those who have stayed in China. excluding Hong Kong and Macau, within seven days of arrival, and for all who arrive directly from China, again excluding Hong Kong and Macau. Those who do test positive will be required to isolate at a government-designated facility.The European Union said it is assessing the surge in cases in China and would be will ready to use the “emergency brake” if necessary, the Associated Press reported. The EU tried to soothe fears, however, by saying the BF.7 omicron variant that was prevalent in China was already active in Europe and does not pose an immediate danger. Italy is already requiring COVID tests for all airline passengers arriving from China. More than half of those tested on arrival at Milan’s Malpensa Airport in recent days have tested positive, the AP reported. India and South Korea have also announced test mandates for airline passengers arriving from China. Meanwhile, in the U.S., new cases and deaths have been falling, while hospitalizations and test-positivity rates are increasing. The seven-day average of new COVID cases fell to a three-week low of 64,410 on Wednesday, according to a New York Times tracker. That’s down from a recent peak of 70,508 on Christmas Eve and down 2% from two weeks ago. The New York Times tracker cautioned that reports for cases and deaths could be artificially low this week as U.S. officials who track the data take time off over the holidays. Hospitalization data, which is not typically affected by holiday breaks, is more reliable. The daily average of COVID-related hospitalizations rose to 40,497 from 39,880 on Tuesday and has increased 1% from two weeks ago. And more worrisome, the number of COVID patients in intensive-care units jumped 10% from two weeks ago to 4,997, the most since early August. The test-positivity rate rose to above 14% on Wednesday, a four-month high, and has increased by 18% in two weeks. Higher test-positivity rates suggest that many new COVID cases, such as those found through at-home testing, are not being reported to official case trackers, the New York Times said. NN: its not time to breath a sign of relief. My Bet is the new variants being generated in China will see Frankenstein’s return. Bigger and badder then ever.
Friday Russia Says It May Cut Oil Production…… On Saturday Russia May Raise Crude Oil Exports if EU Ban Cuts Refining…… Which is it?
After two weeks of silence in detailing how it would react to the G7 oil price cap, overnight the Kremlin raised the stakes for the west when state-run Tass news service quoted Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying that Russia may reduce output by 500,000 to 700,000 barrels a day in response to the cap. While not yet formalized, President Putin plans to sign a decree on the nation’s reaction to the threshold on Monday or Tuesday, containing unspecified “preventive measures.” As the war in Ukraine grinds on, traders have been waiting for Moscow’s full response to the cap, a policy that imposed a $60-a-barrel ceiling on Russian crude in a bid to reduce the Kremlin’s income while keeping exports on the market. While the policy has largely worked so far, with Russia’s popular Urals oil trading below $60 due to sharp discounts to Brent, as the price of oil rises, Urals will also rise above the critical threshold potentially depriving the world of million in barrels of daily supply.
Russia wi ll Raise Crude Oil Exports to non cap countries
NN: The oil market is vastly oversupplies
Oil prices rise over $2 on drawdown in U.S. crude stocks…… we found the reason for the drawdown….Keystone Pipeline shutdown after spill. Open again!
NB: this story is full of blatant inaccuracies and critical information left out. My bulllsit alarm bells were sounding. So i will point out the BullShit by putting my notes in red proceeded by: BS
HOUSTON, Dec 21 (Reuters) – Oil prices rose by more than $2 on Wednesday after data showed a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles, but gains were capped by a snowstorm that is expected to hit U.S. travel. U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.89 million barrels, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), BS: They forgot to mention All of the inventory drop was caused by the shutdown in the keystone pipeline system… See next story. compared with estimates for a drop of 1.66 million barrels. Data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday showed a 3.1 million barrel draw in the week to Dec. 16, market sources said. “This report is very bullish, especially with the fact that there’s a draw from the crude oil equation and distillate inventories stopped their streak of builds ahead of the cold blast,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures group. BS: A cold blast stops travel with roads and airports shut down. Oil consumption DROPS in a cold blast Distillate inventories fell by 242,000 barrels, according to EIA data, compared with analyst estimates for a build of 336,000 barrels. Markets also awaited clarity on when the Keystone pipeline, a major artery ferrying Canadian crude to the United States would restart (BS: The pipe line was restarted before this story was published!!!!) after TC Energy (TRP.TO) said it had removed the ruptured segment of the pipeline that caused an oil spill earlier this month and sent it for metallurgical testing as directed by U.S. regulators. BS: What they forgot to mention was the entire pipeline system was ordered shut down not just the section where the break occupied. Did they tell you the pipeline was sabotaged…. Prices were also boosted by hopes that China would relax some COVID-19 curbs after no new COVID-19 deaths were reported. BS: what they lies about is the fact that factories and cities are shutting down across China. Beijing is a ghost town. The relaxing of COVID restrictions has caused the biggest COVID infection shutdown yet. With record breaking deaths. China’s crude oil imports from Russia in November rose 17% year on year as Chinese refiners rushed to secure more cargoes ahead of a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven nations and an EU embargo from Dec. 5. BS: What they forgot to tell you again is the fact ALL the additional imports and more were not consumed by China. Domestic Consumption has been dropping for months. China has taken advantage of the discounted oil it is receiving from Russia and refining said oil and exporting it into Europe and even the US as distillates. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said on Tuesday that the heavily criticized move by OPEC+ to cut oil output turned out to be the right decision. The comments suggest that OPEC+ may continue to keep supply tight, said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng. BS: Reality is OPEC has initiated only half the proposed cuts. And the slightly reduced production was due to technical production problems by some members. This was offset by increased exports by Venezuel and Iran circumventing US sanctions. Potentially curtailing oil demand, huge parts of the United States are forecast to face heavy snow that is likely to cause flight delays and impassable roads during one of the busiest travel periods of the year. BS: is it not self evident that flight delays and impassible roads it reduces oil consumption. Overall, Russian oil exports fell by 11% month on month for Dec. 1-20 after the European Union’s embargo on Russian oil came into force, BS: in fact Russian production has skyrocketed in preparation for sanctions. and 300 million barrels has been loaded on ships (not counted as exports) and the oil is arriving in India and China as we speak. the Kommersant daily reported. NN: Welcome to my world!
Keystone Pipeline open again, but leaky section in Kansas still shut down
For the first time in over a week, crude oil is flowing again through most of the 2,687-mile Keystone Pipeline, but a section of the conduit in Kansas that leaked nearly 600,000 gallons remained shut off as an investigation of what caused the damage continues, officials said. TC Energy, the Canadian operator of the aboveground pipeline, announced Wednesday evening it is resuming operations of the system that was unaffected by the spill last week in Washington County, Kansas. “The affected segment of the Keystone Pipeline System remains safely isolated as investigation, recovery, repair and remediation continue to advance,” the company said in a statement Thursday morning. The company said it is “safely restarting” the section of the pipeline running from Canada to Patoka, Illinois. “This restart facilitates safe transportation of the energy that customers and North Americans rely on,” TC Energy said in its statement. At full operation, the pipeline normally pumps about 622,000 barrels, or more than 26 million gallons of oil per day from Alberta, Canada, to refineries in Texas, Illinois and Oklahoma. A barrel of oil is equivalent to 42 gallons, or about the size of a typical bathtub, according to industry standards. The pipeline’s damaged “Cushing Extension” which runs from Washington County to Cushing, Oklahoma, remained closed Thursday as the investigation and cleanup goes on, the company said. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, a division of the U.S. Department of Transportation, must grant regulatory approval before the Cushing Extension can reopen, according to the company. The leak in Kansas was first detected just after 9 p.m. on Dec. 7, about 20 miles south of a pipeline’s Steele City, Nebraska, terminal. The leak in the 36-inch diameter pipeline spilled down a hill and into Mill Creek in Washington County, prompting TC Energy to shut down the entire line.
NN: The entire Keystone pipeline system was shut down for 15 days. Take the capacity 622,000 BPD and multiply that lost oil by 20 days and you get 12,440,000 barrels of oil not lost, but stuck in Canada. I guess you can say we solved the mystery behind the missing oil. And the inventory drawn down of close to 6,000,000 reported was not increased consumption by simply due to the TEMPORARY shut down of the Keystone pipeline. Ans that oil will soon be restored to inventory. And most of the system has been restarted with the exception of the spur to Cushing Oklahoma which is expected to restart next week. You mean to tel me that ALL those “SMART” people forgot to mention this critical piece of information… REALLY!
Oil prices jump after a small drop in US inventories
After unexpectedly rising 7.8 million barrels last week, ending a four-week streak of drawdowns, crude oil inventories this week went back to draws, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting inventories down by 3.069 million barrels.
Analysts anticipated a 0.167 million barrel draw.
Meanwhile, crude stored in the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves sunk by 211 million barrels, now at its lowest level since January 1984.
In the week ending December 9, the Department of Energy released 4.7 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, leaving the SPR with just 382 million barrels. On Monday, the DoE’s Office of Petroleum Reserves announced it would start repurchasing crude oil for the SPR in a good deal for American taxpayers. The DoE will repurchase crude at lower prices–currently in the $77-$80 range–than the average of $96 barrels for which it sold SPR reserves this year. In the week prior, the API reported a large draw in crude oil inventories of 7.819 million barrels, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a crude inventory increase of 10.2 million barrels for the week to December 9. At 424.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories were at 6% below the seasonal average for the last five years, the EIA noted in its report last Wednesday. This week, the API also reported moderate builds in product inventories, reporting a 4.51 million barrel increase in gasoline stockpiles and a smaller, 0.83 million barrel build in distillate inventories. Crude inventories at the Cushing hub rose by 0.84 million barrels this week. WTI prices rose on Tuesday as the market reacted to OPEC’s falling crude production in November, per the organization’s Monthly Oil Market Report. At 10:15 EST, WTI was trading up slightly over 2% on the day to just over $77 per barrel. Brent crude was trading almost $2.00 after breaking the $80 mark for now. NN: The chop shop….. We are just trashing back and forth. I expect this to continue through year end.
Hearses queue at Beijing crematorium, even as China reports no new COVID deaths
Oil prices little changed as U.S. crude drawdown offsets China COVID worries
SINGAPORE, Dec 21 (Reuters) – Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday as a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stocks offset worries about rising COVID-19 cases in top oil importer China. Brent crude futures rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.07 per barrel by 0715 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 1 cent to $76.22. U.S. crude inventories fell by about 3.1 million barrels in the week to Dec. 16, according to market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute, while nine analysts polled by Reuters had estimated a 1.7 million barrel drop in stocks. Gasoline inventories rose by about 4.5 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 828,000 barrels, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “A larger-than-expected draw in U.S. inventories, coupled with U.S. plans to refill their Strategic Petroleum Reserve have supported oil prices,” said Serena Huang, head of APAC analysis at Vortexa. “But optimism has been capped by downside pressures from rising global economic headwinds and the recent surge in China’s COVID cases,” Huang added.
NN: This is a hate trade… I hate to be in it AND i hate to be out of it